Thursday, March 28, 2013

Psych

Esp and Precognition
Precognition-people know something before it happens. Being able to foreknow an event before it actually happens.
-even if u dont start out precognitive skills you will get it right 50% of the time. If they get it right more than 50% of the time they ar believed to have esp.
100 people in the study. The statistics be saying that the significant tests says that the difference in the results is bias. Is the number likely to be chance.
If you discombobulate a coin 6000 times and you get 2000 tail and 4000 heads its not chance.Its significant.

* History of psychology/ Your life same serve!

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process of psychology
Intuition theory
Thinking
Logic
Observation descriptive investigate
Psych research coreelation studies
Testing hypothesis experiments

The limits of intuition
1000+ 40 +1000 +30 +1000 +20 +1000 +10= 4100 not 5000

The limits of intuition:
Hindsight Bias-
Tendency to believe, after learning an outcome,that angiotensin converting enzyme would have forseen it.
The I-knew-it-allphenomenon.
Of black market that fact is true I would have predicted that
If you hear a finding it will make sense to you and you debate it make sense ahead of time
Ex: Income compared to happiness. Rich people are happier than poor people, poor people are happier, money doesnt buy happiness no matter the income.
Overconfidence
We tend to think we know more than we do
One more related bother:
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Confirmation Bias- task : observances ( one black triangle, one black fate, one red triangle,one red circle) have a triangle on one side and a circle on the other side. Task is to decide what cards to flip over to find which card to flip over.
Test this notice: if the card has a black triangle it must have a red circle on the other side.
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